A double chance is a niche bet that combines two out of three possible moneyline outcomes into one wager. They’re only applicable in markets where games can end in a win, loss, or draw.

Double chance bets have been a long-time favorite in soccer betting, but they’re beginning to gain popularity in other markets, most notably hockey betting.

Their main appeal is that double chance bets allow bettors to mitigate risk. However, this comes at the expense of reduced payouts, and sometimes, added vigorish. Read on to learn more about how double chance bets work, where to find them, and whether or not they’re worth incorporating into your betting strategy.

Double Chance Betting Sites

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What is Double Chance Betting?

A double chance bet is derived from a three-way moneyline. As a refresher, a three-way moneyline is a slight variation of a traditional moneyline, where bettors can bet on Team A to win, Team B to win, or a draw.

Double chance bets are also three-way moneylines, of sorts. Except, instead of betting on a single outcome, bettors place an individual wager on two possible outcomes.

Like three-way moneylines, bettors can make one of a trio of double chance bets:

• Home Win + Draw: The wager wins if either the home team wins or the game ends in a draw. It loses only if the away team wins. This wager is commonly denoted as 1X.
• Away Win + Draw: This bet wins if either the away team prevails or there’s a draw. It’s denoted as 2X.
• Home Win + Away Win: If either team wins outright, then this bet pays. If the game ends in a draw, it loses. The notation for this wager is 12.

Compared to straight moneyline wagers, double chance bets offer shorter odds. The reasoning behind this should be obvious, as bettors are backing multiple moneyline outcomes, instead of just one.

Sportsbooks can only offer double chances for one-on-one sports where there is a possibility of a draw. Sports like baseball and basketball aren’t applicable because there is always a winner. Likewise, sports such as NASCAR don’t allow double chances because there are many possible winners.

An interesting scenario develops when sports that normally allow double chances enter tournament play. In this case, a double chance might not be offered, or (more likely) the sportsbook will grade the double chance bet at the end of regulation. A good example is a World Cup game, where a winner must be decided, but the 90-minute regulation and extra time period can end with both teams tied.

Double Chance Bet Example

To better grasp the concept of double chance betting, let’s look at an example.

A recent USA – USL Championship game on DraftKings Sportsbook offered the following double chance odds:

• Charleston Battery or Detroit City: -400
• Charleston Battery or Tie: -360
• Tie or Detroit City: -125

Notice that all three wagers have negative American Odds, meaning they’re all favorites to win. This initially may seem confusing, but remember that double chance bets are wagers on two combined outcomes, so the odds skew much shorter. In this case, Charleston Battery is the clear favorite, because their Win + Draw line is much shorter than Detroit City’s.

The implied probabilities of each wager winning are as follows:

• Charleston Battery or Detroit City: 80%
• Charleston Battery or Tie: 78.26%
• Tie or Detroit City: 55.56%

These add up to 213.82%. Normally, the sum of all implied probabilities is 100% plus a few extra percent to account for the house edge. With double chance bets, the sum of the moneyline odds is always at least 200% because it accounts for each outcome twice. Dividing by two (213.82% / 2 = 106.5%) will give bettors a sense of the house edge, which in this case appears to be about 6.1%.

Is Double Chance Betting Necessary?

Some may wonder why double chance betting exists at all. After all, wouldn’t placing straight moneyline wagers on two different outcomes accomplish the same thing?

Not exactly. In the above example, it doesn’t matter if Charleston Battery wins or the game ties, a winning wager will always pay $127.78 per $100 wagered. However, if a bettor placed a moneyline wager on Charleston Battery to win (-110), and another equivalent wager on a Draw (+260), then there are two winning scenarios:

• Charleston wins: The Charleston bet pays $190.91 per $100 wagered, and the Draw bet pays $0 per $100 wagered. Assuming two $50 wagers, the bettor is down $4.55 on a $100 stake.
• Draw: The Charleston bet pays $0 per $100 wagered, and the Draw pays $360. Again assuming two $50 bets, the bettor is up $130 on a $100 stake.

The only similarity is that in both cases, one outcome wins and one loses.

How to Make A Double Chance Bet

Every US legal sportsbook has a slightly different interface, but there are enough commonalities that finding double chance wagers shouldn’t prove too difficult.

First, it’s important to identify eligible markets. The most common market is soccer, where double chances are offered for practically every game. It’s also worth checking hockey and cricket betting markets. Secondary markets like rugby are technically eligible, but sportsbooks rarely bother.

Double chances in soccer are so popular that most books list them right on a game’s main page. For example, on BetMGM, they’re displayed front and center and are even offered as 1st/2nd half wagers. FanDuel takes a similar approach, listing double chances on its “Popular” bet tab.

Suffice it to say, double chances are easy to find.

Double Chance Betting Markets

Soccer is by far the most popular double chance betting market primarily because it’s so low scoring, resulting in a lot of draws. The exact percentage of draws varies by year and league, but a safe estimate is somewhere between 20 – 30%.

Other potential double chance betting markets include:

• Hockey: The NHL no longer has ties, but sports betting sites can offer double chance wagers for the regulation and overtime periods. Ties at the end of overtime go to a shootout. Some NCAA hockey conferences still permit ties.
• Cricket: Some major US sportsbooks offer double chances on Cricket, including DraftKings. Note that a tie in Cricket is not the same as a draw. A tie is when the scores are equal after both teams have completed their innings, whereas a draw simply means the match couldn’t be completed.

Other markets that offer three-way moneylines but where double chances really haven’t caught steam include boxing, handball, and rugby.

Double Chance Betting in the NFL

Sportsbooks do not offer double chance bets on NFL games for one simple reason — the games rarely end in a tie.

From 2017-2022 there were only seven NFL regular season games that ended without a victor, despite the NFL shortening the overtime period from 15 minutes to 10 in 2017.

In 2022, there were two draws out of 277 games, a meager 0.74%.

Given the extremely low probability of a draw, a double chance bet would barely skew the moneyline odds in an NFL betting market. For instance, if the New York Giants moneyline is -200 then a Giants + Draw bet may shorten the odds to about -195. That’s not exactly an appealing wager.

However, sportsbooks do offer draw bets on NFL games. This option allows players to place enticing Hail Mary wagers, and sportsbooks love them because they’re usually juiced higher than traditional moneyline wagers.

Are Double Chances Good Bets?

Bettors looking to mitigate risk will likely be drawn to double chance bets, as they’re less risky than three-way moneyline wagers. They also fit in well with parlays, as they enable bettors to build parlays that have both a reasonable chance to hit and still pay decently.

From a value perspective, double chances are often no better than traditional moneyline wagers, and in many cases, they’re slightly worse. However, some good values exist; it’s just that bettors will have to put in some work to find them.

Calculating Double Chance Value

The steps to figure out if a double chance bets offer strong value are as follows:

1. Find a match that you’d like to wager on.
2. Jot down the odds for each 3-way moneyline outcome.
3. Convert them to implied probabilities. If you don’t know how to do this, BettingUSA has a tutorial on odds conversions.
4. Add the results together for each two-way combination. Store the values in a column.
5. Now turn your attention to the actual double chance odds.
6. Convert the odds for each double chance bet into its implied probability.
7. Compare the results from Step 4 to Step 6. If a double chance bet has a lower implied probability than the sum of implied probabilities calculated in Step 3, the double chance bet has added value.

Admittedly, this process is a little intensive, so let’s break it down with an example:

A recent USA – Open Cup Odds game had the following three-way moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Birmingham Legion FC: +195 (33.90% implied odds)
• Draw: +230 (30.30% implied odds)
• Inter Miami: +145 (40.82% implied odds)

The next step is to add the implied probabilities together for each double chance combination:

• Birmingham + Draw = 33.90% + 30.30% = 64.20%
• Inter Miami + Draw = 40.82% + 30.30% = 71.12%
• Birmingham + Inter Miami = 33.90% + 40.82% = 74.72%

Now compare those to the double chance odds:

• Birmingham + Draw = -180 (64.29% implied odds)
• Inter Miami + Draw = -260 (72.22% implied odds)
• Birmingham + Inter Miami = -300 (75% implied odds)

Put the results side-by-side in a table for clarity:

Notice that the values in each column are very similar. This is expected. However, the double chance implied odds are slightly higher across the board. This signals that DraftKings is juicing up its double chances, at least a little bit.

Now, compare that to the odds of a recent Man City v. Inter UEFA Champions League game, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Again, the values are similar, but note that double chance implied odds are lower than the 3-way odds for Man City + Draw and Man City + Inter. This means that the double chance bets have better value than their equivalent three-way moneylines. Bettors can feel more comfortable betting these double chances.

Other Ways to Find Value in Double Chance Bets

As is the case with any bet, line shopping is key. Soccer lines at US sportsbooks, especially for smaller leagues, aren’t always sharp. A savvy bettor should be able to find good value by comparing double chance lines across a variety of books.

Also, be on the lookout for double chance promos. These don’t occur as regularly as they once did but are still spotlighted during high-profile events, like the World Cup.